Future storms will likely be more intense, on average. But will they also happen more often? That’s a little trickier to predict, says Paul Ullrich, a climate researcher at the University of California, Davis.
Ullrich says many climate researchers are beginning to think that hurricanes might actually form less frequently in a warmer world. Some models suggest that the bigger, more intense storms that form will absorb a lot of heat energy from the oceans—leaving behind slightly cooler waters in their wake. That could make the birth of another big storm less likely until the ocean warms up again.
As areas hit hardest by the recent hurricanes start on the long road to recovery, residents and officials all along the Atlantic coast are considering how best to prepare their homes and communities for the future. Scientists will be analyzing the data from the latest record-breaking storms in the months and years ahead to better understand what kinds of extreme weather future hurricane seasons might bring.